Foreign Investors Bullish on China Stocks

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In recent months, the Chinese stock market has experienced a corrective phase, yet many market analysts argue that this dip is a blessing in disguise for investorsIt presents an opportune moment to enter the market, with experts maintaining a bullish outlook on China's A-share marketExpectations are set high as predictions suggest that the CSI 300 Index could surge by approximately 14% over the course of the coming yearThis sentiment isn’t just optimistic speculation but is grounded in the substantial support from various government policies aimed at stabilizing and invigorating economic growth.

The effectiveness of policy mechanisms implemented by the Chinese government has become markedly evident in recent weeksA slate of supportive measures tailored specifically for critical sectors such as real estate and local government debt is being introducedThese initiatives are expected to alleviate tail risks in the stock market and, crucially, to bolster investor confidence, which in turn enhances the intrinsic value of Chinese stocks.

On May 20, an optimistic adjustment was made to the MSCI China Index's target valuation, raised from 60 to 70. Moreover, the target for the CSI 300 Index was elevated from 3900 points to 4100 points, retaining an “overweight” rating on the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors

Notably, this outlook is shared with major global investment players such as JPMorgan Chase and UBS, who also express confidence in the Chinese equity markets.

Despite a generally lukewarm performance across markets last week, foreign investment entities were vocal in their optimism regarding Chinese assetsAt the “Outlook on Mainland China and Hong Kong Stock Markets” forum held on May 28, Wang Zonghao, the head of China equity strategy research at UBS, shared insights on the current economic landscapeHe noted a resemblance to the macro environment seen in 2015 and 2016, while asserting that the fundamentals of publicly-traded companies today are substantially stronger than those in the earlier yearsWith the MSCI China valuation hovering around 10.5 times earnings, he highlighted that there remains significant room for growth and stated that the market is currently on an upward consolidation path.

In terms of sector allocation advice, Wang Zonghao encouraged a dual approach

On one hand, he advised increasing exposure to high-dividend stocks, an attractive proposition given that numerous companies are raising their dividend payouts in response to shareholder demands coupled with a historically low yield on ten-year government bondsThis juxtaposition creates a scenario where the allure of high-dividend stocks is amplifiedOn the other hand, he recommended boosting aggressive positions, particularly in essentials like the education and training industry, as well as consumer sectors such as beer, which are expected to experience price increases, and industries related to transportationFurthermore, there is strong potential for companies in the Hong Kong internet sector to benefit if there’s a surge in foreign capital returns.

The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) program has long been a focal point for market observers regarding foreign holdings in A-shares

Although the latest QFII holdings and their quarterly adjustments are still pending disclosure, historical trends indicate that QFII allocations generally reflect a long-term investment perspective, typically exceeding three yearsThis long-horizon view prioritizes in-depth fundamental research and the identification of long-term value over short-term speculationA tangible example is the case of Ningbo Bank, which has seen significant continuous support from Singapore’s OCBC Bank, a top ten shareholder since the bank's inception, with an unbroken investment duration of 17 years.

As of the end of the first quarter of this year, QFII funds were noted as top shareholders in 719 A-share companiesAmong these, 320 companies welcomed QFII into their top shareholder base for the first time, and additional investments were made in 166 firmsOne striking example shows that Hengshuai Technology witnessed significant new investments from the Monetary Authority of Macao and the Kuwait Investment Authority, both entering the company's top ten shareholders for the first time.

The performance expectations from firms often align closely with the standards upheld by QFII funds

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For instance, Hengshuai Technology reported revenues of 242 million yuan for the first quarter, marking a remarkable year-on-year growth of 31.73%, alongside a net profit increase of 58.6% to approximately 64.79 million yuanThe company specializes in micro-motor technology and is expanding its cleaning business while advancing towards intelligent cleaning solutionsAnalysts predict that Hengshuai will see revenues climb to 1.207 billion yuan, 1.548 billion yuan, and 1.931 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 30.7%, 28.2%, and 24.8%, respectively, while net profits are projected to follow suitGiven these forecasts, the company continues to be rated as a “buy” in the intelligent manufacturing sector.

Similarly, Guanlong Energy has also attracted attention, with new substantial holdings reported by Barclays Bank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Securities, cumulatively owning over 273,000 shares, or 5% of the firm’s circulating stock

Importantly, since the second quarter, foreign investors continue to show a proactive interest in A-share companies, evidenced by active engagement in research initiativesReports reveal that 628 distinct A-shares had QFII fund representatives on their evaluation lists, a clear indication of growing foreign interest.

Adding to the trend, capital from the Middle East is also making waves in the Chinese marketFor example, on May 29, Lenovo Group announced that it had secured a strategic investment of $2 billion from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fundMiddle Eastern investors have increasingly concentrated on heavy investments in Chinese assets, spanning sectors like renewable energy, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticalsThe multifaceted nature of these investments underscores a dynamic intercontinental engagement, reflecting mutual aspirations for growth in an increasingly interconnected global economy.